In the runoff for the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election, Shigeru Ishiba emerged as the surprise winner over Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi had initially received the most votes in the first round but faced opposition from Diet members who were concerned about her hawkish policies. The battle to secure votes from Diet members was intense, with factions led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Vice President Taro Aso, and Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi splitting apart.
Ishiba expressed his astonishment at his come-from-behind victory during a press conference after the election. His strategy was to win support from rank-and-file members and affiliated groups in the first round and then gather backing from Diet members in a runoff. However, he only received 108 votes from rank-and-file members compared to Takaichi’s 109. Among Diet members, Ishiba secured 46 votes while Takaichi obtained 72. In total, it was 181-154 in favor of Takaichi.
Nevertheless, Ishiba managed to turn things around in the runoff by securing an impressive 189 votes from Diet members. Aso, leader of a faction with 54 members, made an initial move by announcing that his faction would support Takaichi in the runoff.
Kishida grew increasingly concerned about Takaichi’s rising support due to her stated intention of visiting Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister. As someone who prioritizes diplomacy as prime minister, Kishida could not ignore how this would negatively impact Japan’s relationships with China and South Korea.
Kishida took action by having former senior members of his faction call other former faction members on Friday morning and instruct them to vote for ”the one other than Takaichi” in the runoff.
Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga also rallied behind Ishiba along with unaffiliated Diet members who supported him.
Takaichi’s hard-line conservative stance raised alarm not only within LDP but also within its ruling coalition partner Komeito.
It is worth noting that some believe Ishiba gained additional votes after Diet members saw the results of the first round and wanted to avoid chaos.
While Ishiba has been criticized for not holding key party or cabinet positions for a long time and being vocal about past administrations’ shortcomings, he should be cautious moving forward as winning support solely based on being seen as an alternative choice does not necessarily indicate popularity within the party.
