The Biden administration has been struggling to prevent a regional war in the Middle East for the past year, fearing its potential impact on the US and global economy. However, this policy is now on the verge of failing as Iran has fired missiles at Israel for the second time this year. The US has assisted Israel in shooting down these missiles, and there are concerns that this could lead to joint military action against Iran.
In April, Israel limited its retaliation to a level acceptable to Iran, which helped de-escalate tensions. But this time around, it seems less likely that further escalation can be prevented. Israel has launched a ground incursion into Lebanon as part of its ongoing conflict with regional enemies like Hizbollah.
The Israeli government may want to hit back hard at Iran in an attempt to weaken their nuclear program and cause lasting damage. On the other hand, Iran understands the risks of Israeli counter-escalation but also sees not responding as a serious risk.
The White House may be urging Israel to calibrate its response and avoid escalating further. The Biden administration does not want another conflict in the Middle East after withdrawing from Afghanistan. However, if Israel decides on tougher action against Iran, they have shown they are willing to ignore calls for restraint.
Despite urging restraint in Gaza and Lebanon while protecting Israel from escalation consequences due to their commitment against regional enemies like Iran, there is a paradox within US policy that allows Israel to defy their wishes without significant risk.
With America’s presidential election approaching soon, it is unlikely that they will refuse support for Israel during this crisis. Kamala Harris may have flirted with taking a tougher stance on Gaza but will also want to appear tough and supportive of Israel while maintaining a strong position against Iran.
This perilous situation could benefit Donald Trump’s narrative that claims peace during his presidency was disrupted by weakness under Biden’s administration. This latest escalation between Israel and Iran could serve as an ”October surprise” leading up to the election.
tensions between these countries continue to rise with potential implications for both regional stability and international relations.
