Power-hungry artificial intelligence is consuming increasingly vast amounts of energy from the creaking US grid and threatening national efforts to tackle climate change, according to the latest expert forecasts.
Unprecedented energy demand, fueled in part by expanding data centers for AI, combined with the slower-than-expected pace of renewable development and longer operating timelines for polluting coal plants, have prompted analysts to recast their models for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
The theme dominated discussions at Climate Week NYC, held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week, where technology companies were more in focus than the fossil fuel companies behind pollution historically.
The latest report from BloombergNEF this week warned of the slower US progress on decarbonization, predicting emissions would be reduced by as little as 34 percent by 2030 from their 2005 levels.
The latest assessment puts the US trajectory even further from its national target to cut its emissions by 50-52 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 under its pledge to the Paris agreement.
“That’s not good by a long shot,” said Tara Narayanan, lead power analyst at BloombergNEF, calling the rise of AI power demand a “big disruption” to supply.
“The lack of grid infrastructure is proving a big constraint to progress on green energy transition not just in the US but around the world. China is set for an unparalleled $800bn in spending over six years to overcome strains on its energy system as it makes a rapid shift from coal power to renewable sources.”
In addition, power demand remained virtually flat in the US for two decades. Now forecasters such as consultancy group ICF expect it to rise nine percent by 2028 and nearly twenty percent by 2033 due to data center growth, manufacturing onshoring and electrification.
However, Jennifer Granholm, US Energy Secretary believes that despite this surge in power demand; thanks to near-$370bn green subsidies rolled out under Joe Biden’s administration’s Inflation Reduction Act; she believes that country could still meet its net zero targets.
Renewable project developers say that generating enough green energy is hampered because it can take up half a decade before new supply comes online due permitting delays and grid rollout delays.
“The proliferation of AI data centers has led Big Tech companies into finding sources of low-emission round-the-clock power,” says Akshat Kasliwal at PA Consulting.
